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Thursday, October 28, 2004

PIPA Press Release: No WMD, No War

The following is a press release from the Program on International Policy Attitudes. PIPA is a joint program of the Center on Policy Attitudes (COPA) and the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM), School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland.

PIPA Three in Four Say If Iraq Did Not Have WMD or Support al Qaeda, US Should Not Have Gone to War

Saddam's Intent to Build WMD Not Seen as Sufficient Reason; Majority Believes Iraq Situation Getting Worse, But Only 1 in 5 Want to Withdraw; Majority Opposes Permanent Bases in Iraq, But Perceives US Planning Them

A new PIPA/Knowledge Networks poll finds a consensus among the American public that if Iraq did not have WMD and was not providing substantial support to al Qaeda, the US should not have gone to war with Iraq. Seventy-four percent overall have this view, including 58% of Bush supporters, 92% of Kerry supporters and 77% of the uncommitted--those who have not made a definite commitment to vote for one or the other candidate. A majority also rejects the argument that the US should have gone to war with Iraq because Saddam Hussein had the intention to acquire WMD. Presented two arguments, only 35% endorsed the one that said, "Even if Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction, the US still should have gone to war with Iraq, because Saddam Hussein had the intention to acquire such weapons at some point in the future." Rather, 60% said that if Saddam only had a desire for such weapons, "instead of invading Iraq, the US should have made sure he did not get the capability to make them."

Overall, support for the decision to go to war has eroded slightly, so that a bare majority of 51% now says that it was the wrong decision, and 46% say it was the right decision (as compared to August when 49% said it was the wrong decision and 46% the right decision).

Steven Kull comments, "It may seem contradictory that three quarters of Americans say that the US should not have gone to war if Iraq did not have WMD or was not providing support to al Qaeda, while nearly half still say the war was the right decision. However, support for the decision is sustained by persisting beliefs among half of Americans that Iraq provided substantial support to al Qaeda, and had WMD, or at least a major WMD program."

Despite the widely-publicized conclusions of the Duelfer report, 49% of Americans continue to believe Iraq had actual WMD (27%) or a major WMD program (22%), and 52% believe that Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda.

Views about the decision to go to war are highly correlated with beliefs about prewar Iraq. Among those who say that going to war was the right decision, 73% believe that Iraq had WMD (47%) or a major program for developing them (26%), and 75% believe that Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda. Among those who say it was the wrong decision, only 29% believe that Iraq had WMD (10%) or a major program for developing them (19%), and 33% believe that Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda.

Views of the current situation in Iraq lean to the negative. Fifty-four percent believe the situation in Iraq is getting worse (46% better). Fifty-one percent say that "the US military presence in Iraq is currently provoking more conflict than it is preventing" while 46% say it is "a stabilizing force." Though large majorities of Kerry supporters express such negative views, Bush supporters say the opposite. Among the uncommitted, a 60% majority says the situation is worsening, and 60% say US military presence is provoking more conflict rather than being a stabilizing force (36%).
The public is divided about whether the operation will ultimately succeed. Forty percent express high confidence in ultimate success, 45% express low confidence, and 16% are neutral.

Read more...

For more information on the PIPA poll see: